Monarcas Morelia 2-0 Celaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.11
Away
51%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.75
Over 2.5
57%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
28%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
30%
-4.4pp
23%
Draw
29%
-5.5pp
51%
Away Win
41%
+9.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
53%
-9.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
47%
+9.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.8pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Celaya EU Bookmakers 45%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +19%
0.40/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.84
-66% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +37%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
261 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monarcas Morelia
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Celaya
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
22.03.2024 Celaya Celaya 1-2 HT 1-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
07.08.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-0 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
15.05.2023 Celaya Celaya 1-3 HT 1-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
12.05.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-1 HT 1-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
03.04.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 3-2 HT 1-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
08.09.2022 Celaya Celaya 2-0 HT 1-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
POST-MATCH Monarcas Morelia vs Celaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monarcas Morelia got the better of Celaya 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Celaya at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monarcas Morelia had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Monarcas Morelia and 1.17 for Celaya.

What was the final score of Monarcas Morelia vs Celaya?

Monarcas Morelia 2-0 Celaya in the Mexico - Primera A on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monarcas Morelia vs Celaya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Monarcas Morelia 26%, draw 23%, Celaya 51%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Celaya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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