KMC 1-0 Kagera Sugar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tanzanya - Kuu Bara Ligi, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
33%
2.83
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.36
Over 2.5
50%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.4
No
50%
1.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
39%
-5.9pp
33%
Draw
32%
+1.5pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
70%
-19.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
30%
+19.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
38%
+12.5pp
50%
BTTS No
62%
-12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KMC EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Kagera Sugar EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.20/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/0.63
+11% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +79%
50% Ball Possession 50%
0 Total Shots 0
0 Shots on Target 0
0 Corners 0
0 · 0% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 0 · 0%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KMC
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Kagera Sugar
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2024 KMC KMC 0-0 Kagera Sugar Kagera Sugar Tanzanya - Kuu Bara Ligi
29.10.2021 KMC KMC 0-1 Kagera Sugar Kagera Sugar Tanzanya - Kuu Bara Ligi
POST-MATCH KMC vs Kagera Sugar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KMC edged past Kagera Sugar 1-0.

Our pre-match split (33% / 33% / 33%) promised a tight game; KMC found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Kagera Sugar led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for KMC and 0.50 for Kagera Sugar.

What was the final score of KMC vs Kagera Sugar?

KMC 1-0 Kagera Sugar in the Tanzanya - Kuu Bara Ligi on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KMC vs Kagera Sugar?

Before kick-off our model rated a KMC win the most likely single outcome at about 33%, with the full match-result split KMC 33%, draw 33%, Kagera Sugar 33%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (33/33/33)
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