Express 2-1 NEC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 3 Oct 2024

Express
2-1 HT 2-0
NEC
📅03/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.34
Draw
35%
3.64
Away
42%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.64
Over 2.5
36%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.19
No
55%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
16%
+7.0pp
35%
Draw
25%
+10.6pp
42%
Away Win
59%
-17.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
57%
+6.7pp
36%
Over 2.5
43%
-6.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.8pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Express EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
204 · 60% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Express
2-1
AWAY NEC
33% Ball Possession 67%
5 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Express vs NEC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Express edged past NEC 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was NEC at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Express had 33% of the ball to NEC's 67%, shots finished 5-15.

What was the final score of Express vs NEC?

Express 2-1 NEC in the Uganda - Premier League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Express vs NEC?

Before kick-off our model rated an NEC win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Express 23%, draw 35%, NEC 42%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (NEC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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