Louisville City 3-0 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.16
Draw
19%
7.13
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
3.14
Over 2.5
66%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
2.19
No
45%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
14%
7.61
2-3 Goals
36%
2.26
4-5 Goals
35%
2.42
6+ Goals
15%
4.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
24%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
82%
-13.3pp
19%
Draw
11%
+7.3pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+6.1pp
34%
Under 2.5
28%
+6.1pp
66%
Over 2.5
72%
-6.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
42%
+13.7pp
45%
BTTS No
58%
-13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 9%
-2% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -13%
2.05/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/2.26
-1% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +2%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
471 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 78%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.3
22.0 Crosses 11.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Miami FC
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.68 xG 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
361 Passes 292
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.06.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
21.09.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 4-3 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
14.05.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 3-1 HT 1-1 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
28.08.2022 Miami FC Miami FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
20.03.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 2-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
07.11.2021 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
3-0
AWAY Miami FC
2.48 xG 0.07
57% Ball Possession 43%
24 Total Shots 4
11 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 0
527 Passes 392
92% Pass Accuracy 88%
33 Box Touches 2
30 Crosses 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City swept aside Miami FC 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (66%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, Louisville City had 57% of the ball to Miami FC's 43%, shots finished 24-4, expected goals 2.48 to 0.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Louisville City and 1.17 for Miami FC.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Miami FC?

Louisville City 3-0 Miami FC in the USL Championship on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 69%, draw 19%, Miami FC 13%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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