Miami FC 1-2 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 2 Jun 2024

Miami FC
1-2 HT 0-1
Louisville City
📅02/06/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Miami FC vs Louisville City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
5.4
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
51%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.12
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.05
6+ Goals
9%
9.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.12 — our 28% vs market 19.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
31%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
15%
+12.6pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.3pp
51%
Away Win
65%
-14.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.2pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Miami FC v Louisville City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miami FC EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 70%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -6%
0.80/2.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.09
-35% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +0%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
265 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 429 · 83%
8.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
9.4 Crosses 22.9
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Miami FC vs Louisville City Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miami FC
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Louisville City
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
0.96 xG 1.68
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
306 Passes 391
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.09.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 4-3 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
14.05.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 3-1 HT 1-1 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
28.08.2022 Miami FC Miami FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
20.03.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 2-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
07.11.2021 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP

Miami FC 1-2 Louisville City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miami FC
1-2
AWAY Louisville City
1.24 xG 1.69
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
226 Passes 208
71% Pass Accuracy 71%
17 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 18
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Miami FC vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City squeezed past Miami FC 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Miami FC had 52% of the ball to Louisville City's 48%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.24 to 1.69.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Miami FC and 1.80 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Miami FC vs Louisville City?

Miami FC 1-2 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 02/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miami FC vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 27%, draw 21%, Louisville City 51%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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