Hamburg 1-1 Nürnberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 3 Nov 2024

Hamburg
1-1 HT 1-0
Nürnberg
📅03/11/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Hamburg vs Nürnberg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.72
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.38
Over 2.5
62%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.94
2-3 Goals
36%
1.95
4-5 Goals
31%
2.78
6+ Goals
13%
7.38
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.16
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.8
X/1
17%
4.18
X/2
11%
9.09
X/X
9%
6.34
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.0
2/2
10%
6.17
2/X
6%
15.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.0 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
54%
-0.3pp
20%
Draw
22%
-2.0pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.3pp
38%
Under 2.5
38%
+0.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
62%
-0.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.0pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hamburg v Nürnberg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 27%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +20%
1.98/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.63
+4% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +7%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
409 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 74%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
22.2 Crosses 16.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Hamburg vs Nürnberg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Nürnberg
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.88 xG 1.28
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
490 Passes 292
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.05.2024 Hamburg Hamburg 4-1 HT 3-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
16.12.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-2 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
04.03.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 3-0 HT 1-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
27.08.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-2 HT 0-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
05.03.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-1 HT 1-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
26.10.2021 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-1 HT 0-1 Hamburg Hamburg AFK

Hamburg 1-1 Nürnberg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
1-1
AWAY Nürnberg
1.01 xG 2.22
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 11
5 Corners 11
355 Passes 481
86% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Nürnberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg and Nürnberg shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hamburg at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Hamburg had 43% of the ball to Nürnberg's 57%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.01 to 2.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamburg had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Hamburg and 0.67 for Nürnberg.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Nürnberg?

Hamburg 1-1 Nürnberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Nürnberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 54%, draw 20%, Nürnberg 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hamburg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hamburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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