Smorgon 1-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.88
6+ Goals
11%
17.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
12%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+0.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.6pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smorgon EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk EU Bookmakers 40%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
1.02/0.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/0.33
-20% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
249 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smorgon
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
16.06.2024 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 2-0 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
22.06.2021 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 2-1 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLRK
18.07.2020 Smorgon Smorgon 1-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smorgon
1-0
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Smorgon vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smorgon squeezed past Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Smorgon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Smorgon had 38% of the ball to Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk's 62%, shots finished 10-14.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Smorgon and 1.67 for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk.

What was the final score of Smorgon vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

Smorgon 1-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smorgon vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Smorgon 36%, draw 26%, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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3 Nov 2024
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