Helmond Sport 0-1 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 Nov 2024

Helmond Sport
0-1 HT 0-0
Excelsior
📅03/11/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Helmond Sport vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.84
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.7
2-3 Goals
38%
1.91
4-5 Goals
26%
2.85
6+ Goals
13%
7.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.36
1/2
6%
23.15
1/X
7%
12.4
X/1
10%
6.93
X/2
12%
5.18
X/X
10%
5.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
29.0
2/2
23%
2.9
2/X
5%
12.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 6% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
31%
+5.2pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.2pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-1.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.9pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Helmond Sport v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
1.34/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/1.24
+17% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 79%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
18.1 Crosses 23.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Helmond Sport vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Helmond Sport
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Excelsior
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.86 xG 1.55
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
365 Passes 397
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
26.03.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 3-0 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
19.11.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-5 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
28.03.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 0-3 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
13.11.2020 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-1 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
26.10.2020 Excelsior Excelsior 4-0 HT 2-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOK
19.08.2020 Excelsior Excelsior 2-1 HT 1-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HAZ

Helmond Sport 0-1 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Helmond Sport
0-1
AWAY Excelsior
0.39 xG 1.01
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
219 Passes 307
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
12 Box Touches 38
8 Crosses 29
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Helmond Sport vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior edged past Helmond Sport 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 22% / 41%) promised a tight game; Excelsior found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Helmond Sport had 44% of the ball to Excelsior's 56%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.39 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Helmond Sport and 2.50 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of Helmond Sport vs Excelsior?

Helmond Sport 0-1 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Helmond Sport vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated an Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Helmond Sport 37%, draw 22%, Excelsior 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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