Alloa Athletic 2-2 Dumbarton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
2.15
Over 2.5
40%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.55
No
57%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
4.11
2-3 Goals
36%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
2.97
6+ Goals
8%
9.11
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.11 — our 35% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+3.0pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.3pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
43%
+16.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
57%
-16.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
60%
-17.2pp
57%
BTTS No
40%
+17.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alloa Athletic EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Dumbarton EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -18%
1.53/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.68
-4% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
5.0 Crosses 3.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alloa Athletic
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Dumbarton
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 8
10.08.2024 Dumbarton Dumbarton 3-3 HT 1-2 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
02.04.2022 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 2-3 HT 0-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK1
19.02.2022 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-2 HT 1-1 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
20.11.2021 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 1-2 HT 0-0 Dumbarton Dumbarton İK1
25.09.2021 Dumbarton Dumbarton 1-1 HT 0-1 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
13.05.2018 Dumbarton Dumbarton 0-1 HT 0-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
POST-MATCH Alloa Athletic vs Dumbarton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alloa Athletic and Dumbarton shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Alloa Athletic at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Alloa Athletic and 1.67 for Dumbarton.

What was the final score of Alloa Athletic vs Dumbarton?

Alloa Athletic 2-2 Dumbarton in the Scotland - 1st Division on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alloa Athletic vs Dumbarton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alloa Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Alloa Athletic 46%, draw 23%, Dumbarton 31%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alloa Athletic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İK1 More Scotland - 1st Division
3 Dec 2024
22:45 Cove Rangers vs Stenhousemuir Analysis →