03/12/2024
·
15:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
3-0
2nd Score
4-0
Araz Nahçıvan vs Mingəçevir Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
Over 2.5
57%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
50%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
14%
X/2
3%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
3%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
85%
16%
Draw
8%
13%
Away Win
6%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Araz Nahçıvan v Mingəçevir — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Araz Nahçıvan
EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY
Mingəçevir
EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
59%
Ball Possession
41%
19
Total Shots
7
7
Shots on Target
2
7
Corners
3
487 · 87%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
288 · 78%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Araz Nahçıvan vs Mingəçevir
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Araz Nahçıvan beat Mingəçevir 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Araz Nahçıvan as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.
What was the final score of Araz Nahçıvan vs Mingəçevir?
Araz Nahçıvan 3-1 Mingəçevir in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Araz Nahçıvan vs Mingəçevir?
Before kick-off our model rated a Araz Nahçıvan win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Araz Nahçıvan 70%, draw 16%, Mingəçevir 13%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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AZERK
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