MTK Budapest 3-1 Paksi SE — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 3 Dec 2024

MTK Budapest
3-1 HT 1-1
Paksi SE
📅03/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Hungary - NB I – 2024/2025

MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.08
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MTK Budapest v Paksi SE — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Paksi SE EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -12%
1.61/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.54
-6% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
14.6 Crosses 25.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MTK Budapest
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Paksi SE
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.21 xG 1.13
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
396 Passes 232
74% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.03.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-2 HT 0-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
05.11.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 0-0 HT 0-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
28.07.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-1 HT 0-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
16.04.2022 Paksi SE Paksi SE 4-0 HT 3-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
18.12.2021 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-4 HT 1-2 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
11.09.2021 Paksi SE Paksi SE 3-2 HT 2-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC

MTK Budapest 3-1 Paksi SE — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MTK Budapest
3-1
AWAY Paksi SE
3.20 xG 0.77
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 12
12 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
432 Passes 353
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MTK Budapest saw off Paksi SE 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; MTK Budapest found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, MTK Budapest had 53% of the ball to Paksi SE's 47%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 3.20 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paksi SE led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for MTK Budapest and 2.33 for Paksi SE.

What was the final score of MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE?

MTK Budapest 3-1 Paksi SE in the Hungary - NB I on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MTK Budapest vs Paksi SE?

Before kick-off our model rated a MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split MTK Budapest 37%, draw 27%, Paksi SE 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MTK Budapest), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (MTK Budapest) ✓ BTTS Yes
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