Mbarara City 1-1 Gaddafi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 3 Dec 2025

Mbarara City
1 - 1 HT 0 - 0
Gaddafi
📅03/12/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Uganda - Premier League – 2025/2026

Mbarara City vs Gaddafi Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.2
Draw
33%
2.96
Away
28%
3.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
1.59
Over
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2-3
46%
4-5
16%
6+
3%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
2%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
22%
2/1
2%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the view of our model: the outcome it rates most likely. A forecast, not a bet.

Mbarara City v Gaddafi — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Mbarara City The Market 45%
Signal
AWAY Gaddafi The Market 32%
Bad Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
0.85 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.14
0.92 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.47
Bad Attack Strength Average
Strong Defense Strength Weak
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1 Yellow Cards 2

Mbarara City vs Gaddafi Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mbarara City
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Gaddafi
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.03.2024 Mbarara City Mbarara City 5-0 HT 2-0 Gaddafi Gaddafi UGA
20.02.2022 Gaddafi Gaddafi 1-0 HT 0-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
29.12.2021 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-1 HT 0-1 Gaddafi Gaddafi UGA
REVIEW Mbarara City vs Gaddafi
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Mbarara City and Gaddafi couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

A draw from a 39% / 33% / 28% read is the model being honest — some games really are too close to call. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Gaddafi led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Mbarara City and 0.67 for Gaddafi.

Mbarara City vs Gaddafi Result & Final Score

Mbarara City 1 - 1 Gaddafi in the Uganda - Premier League on 03/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Mbarara City vs Gaddafi Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Mbarara City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mbarara City 39%, draw 33%, Gaddafi 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Mbarara City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mbarara City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
UGA More Uganda - Premier League
3 Dec 2025
16:00 Uganda Police vs Buhimba United Saints Analysis →