Derby County 1-2 Wrexham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 4 Jan 2026

Derby County
1 - 2 HT 1 - 1
Wrexham
📅04/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Derby County vs Wrexham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.59
Over
40%
2.16
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.97
No
52%
1.74
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.42
2-3
48%
1.77
4-5
16%
4.76
6+
3%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.25
1/2
2%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.6
X/1
16%
4.87
X/2
10%
6.76
X/X
21%
3.84
2/1
2%
31.5
2/2
15%
5.4
2/X
5%
14.3
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Derby County v Wrexham — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Derby County The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Wrexham The Market 32%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Bad
1.29 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.98
1.14 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.51
Weak Attack Strength Bad
Strong Defense Strength Average
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
312 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 74%
22 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2

Derby County vs Wrexham Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Wrexham
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.64 xG 0.89
46% Ball Possession 54%
5 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
292 Passes 376
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 26
5 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.09.2025 Wrexham Wrexham 1-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
06.01.2007 Derby County Derby County 3-1 HT 1-0 Wrexham Wrexham FAK

Derby County 1-2 Wrexham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
1 - 2
AWAY Wrexham
1.35 xG 1.43
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 2
351 Passes 327
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
38 Box Touches 10
28 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Derby County vs Wrexham
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Wrexham edged past Derby County 2-1 away from home. Level at 1-1 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

We leaned Derby County at 42% — softly — and the game went the other way. Slim leads do that. The one blemish: under 2.5 goals (60%) never looked like landing.

The match data tells the story: Derby County had 52% of the ball to Wrexham's 48%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.35 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Derby County had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Derby County and 1.00 for Wrexham.

Derby County vs Wrexham Result & Final Score

Derby County 1 - 2 Wrexham in the England - Championship on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Derby County vs Wrexham Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Derby County 42%, draw 31%, Wrexham 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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