Fiorentina vs Cremonese Prediction — Model Probabilities
Fiorentina v Cremonese — Team-Based Signals
Fiorentina vs Cremonese Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
Fiorentina 1-0 Cremonese — Actual Match Statistics
Fiorentina edged past Cremonese 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 51%, coin-flips both.
By the numbers, Fiorentina had 65% of the ball to Cremonese's 35%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 2.06 to 0.73 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fiorentina's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fiorentina had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Fiorentina and 0.50 for Cremonese.
Fiorentina vs Cremonese Result & Final Score
Fiorentina 1 - 0 Cremonese in the Italy - Serie A on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Fiorentina vs Cremonese Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 58%, draw 25%, Cremonese 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.