Shabana 1-3 Nairobi United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 4 Jan 2026

📅04/01/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
26%
2.83
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
Over 2.5
38%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.67
No
59%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
18%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.0pp
26%
Draw
32%
-6.2pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
33%
+7.4pp
59%
BTTS No
67%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shabana EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Nairobi United EU Bookmakers 26%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.85/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/0.50
-23% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / +86%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
281 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 198 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shabana
1-3
AWAY Nairobi United
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Shabana vs Nairobi United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nairobi United beat Shabana 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Shabana at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shabana had 66% of the ball to Nairobi United's 34%, shots finished 19-11.

What was the final score of Shabana vs Nairobi United?

Shabana 1-3 Nairobi United in the Kenya - Premier League on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shabana vs Nairobi United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shabana win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Shabana 46%, draw 26%, Nairobi United 28%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shabana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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