Valencia II 1-0 Pena Deportiva — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
12%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+8.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.7pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia II EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Pena Deportiva EU Bookmakers 27%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
1.32/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.12
-5% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia II
0W-3D-2L
AWAY Pena Deportiva
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 4
24.09.2023 Pena Deportiva Pena Deportiva 2-1 HT 1-1 Valencia II Valencia II İS4
07.05.2023 Pena Deportiva Pena Deportiva 1-0 HT 0-0 Valencia II Valencia II İS4
08.01.2023 Valencia II Valencia II 0-0 HT 0-0 Pena Deportiva Pena Deportiva İS4
24.01.2021 Pena Deportiva Pena Deportiva 1-1 HT 0-0 Valencia II Valencia II İS3
25.10.2020 Valencia II Valencia II 0-0 HT 0-0 Pena Deportiva Pena Deportiva İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valencia II
1-0
AWAY Pena Deportiva
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Valencia II vs Pena Deportiva
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valencia II nicked a narrow win over Pena Deportiva 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Valencia II as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Valencia II had 48% of the ball to Pena Deportiva's 52%, shots finished 18-9.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Pena Deportiva led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Valencia II and 0.80 for Pena Deportiva.

What was the final score of Valencia II vs Pena Deportiva?

Valencia II 1-0 Pena Deportiva in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia II vs Pena Deportiva?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valencia II win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Valencia II 42%, draw 27%, Pena Deportiva 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valencia II), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valencia II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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