Hapoel Jerusalem 2-1 Beitar Jerusalem — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.71
Over 2.5
34%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.82
No
59%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.09
6+ Goals
6%
19.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 34% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+2.7pp
66%
Under 2.5
55%
+10.9pp
34%
Over 2.5
45%
-10.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.6pp
59%
BTTS No
49%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hapoel Jerusalem EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Beitar Jerusalem EU Bookmakers 38%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.89/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/1.74
-59% / +111% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 79%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
14.6 Crosses 16.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hapoel Jerusalem
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Beitar Jerusalem
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.14 xG 0.45
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
340 Passes 352
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 4
06.12.2023 Beitar Jerusalem Beitar Jerusalem 1-0 HT 0-0 Hapoel Jerusalem Hapoel Jerusalem İSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hapoel Jerusalem
2-1
AWAY Beitar Jerusalem
1.00 xG 1.10
59% Ball Possession 41%
6 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 2
372 Passes 247
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hapoel Jerusalem vs Beitar Jerusalem
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hapoel Jerusalem edged past Beitar Jerusalem 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Hapoel Jerusalem found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hapoel Jerusalem had 59% of the ball to Beitar Jerusalem's 41%, shots finished 6-11, expected goals 1.00 to 1.10.

What was the final score of Hapoel Jerusalem vs Beitar Jerusalem?

Hapoel Jerusalem 2-1 Beitar Jerusalem in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hapoel Jerusalem vs Beitar Jerusalem?

Before kick-off our model rated an Beitar Jerusalem win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Hapoel Jerusalem 35%, draw 28%, Beitar Jerusalem 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Beitar Jerusalem) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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4 Feb 2024
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