Maccabi Bnei Raina 2-1 Hapoel Eran Hadera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.66
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.36
6+ Goals
6%
22.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 33% vs market 31.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-1.5pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.4pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maccabi Bnei Raina EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Hapoel Eran Hadera EU Bookmakers 27%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.50/2.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.02
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +150%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 72%
11.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
5.0 Crosses 16.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maccabi Bnei Raina
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Hapoel Eran Hadera
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.56 xG 0.60
55% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
420 Passes 253
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 9
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.12.2023 Hapoel Eran Hadera Hapoel Eran Hadera 0-2 HT 0-1 Maccabi Bnei Raina Maccabi Bnei Raina İSR
13.08.2023 Hapoel Eran Hadera Hapoel Eran Hadera 1-1 HT 1-0 Maccabi Bnei Raina Maccabi Bnei Raina İSRTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maccabi Bnei Raina
2-1
AWAY Hapoel Eran Hadera
2.73 xG 0.69
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
370 Passes 314
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 8
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Hapoel Eran Hadera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maccabi Bnei Raina edged past Hapoel Eran Hadera 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Maccabi Bnei Raina as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Maccabi Bnei Raina had 53% of the ball to Hapoel Eran Hadera's 47%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.73 to 0.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Maccabi Bnei Raina's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Maccabi Bnei Raina had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Maccabi Bnei Raina and 0.50 for Hapoel Eran Hadera.

What was the final score of Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Hapoel Eran Hadera?

Maccabi Bnei Raina 2-1 Hapoel Eran Hadera in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Hapoel Eran Hadera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maccabi Bnei Raina win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Maccabi Bnei Raina 48%, draw 29%, Hapoel Eran Hadera 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maccabi Bnei Raina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maccabi Bnei Raina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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