Baden 2-1 Bellinzona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
35%
3.35
Away
33%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.82
Over 2.5
38%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.75
No
60%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
3.16
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
3.67
6+ Goals
7%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 38% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
20%
2/1
4%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.5pp
35%
Draw
26%
+9.1pp
33%
Away Win
43%
-10.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
51%
+10.3pp
38%
Over 2.5
49%
-10.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
53%
-12.9pp
60%
BTTS No
47%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baden EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 48%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-10% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
284 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
24.2 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baden
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Bellinzona
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.62 xG 1.17
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
248 Passes 354
68% Pass Accuracy 75%
10 Box Touches 20
10 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 4
26.11.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 3-1 HT 2-1 Baden Baden İSV2
30.07.2023 Baden Baden 1-1 HT 1-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baden
2-1
AWAY Bellinzona
1.47 xG 0.80
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
328 Passes 320
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Baden vs Bellinzona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baden edged past Bellinzona 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 35% / 33%) promised a tight game; Baden found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Baden had 51% of the ball to Bellinzona's 49%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 1.47 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Bellinzona led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Baden and 2.00 for Bellinzona.

What was the final score of Baden vs Bellinzona?

Baden 2-1 Bellinzona in the Switzerland Challenge League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baden vs Bellinzona?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Baden 32%, draw 35%, Bellinzona 33%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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