Paderborn 4-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 4 Feb 2024

Paderborn
4-3 HT 3-0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Paderborn vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
39%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.56
No
41%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.06
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
9.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.48
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
13%
5.64
X/2
17%
5.86
X/X
14%
4.94
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.0
2/2
15%
3.67
2/X
6%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
38%
-4.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.0pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paderborn v Fortuna Düsseldorf — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 39%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.79/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.38
+11% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 76%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
18.5 Crosses 19.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Paderborn vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.18 xG 1.76
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
394 Passes 295
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
03.02.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 4-1 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
22.07.2022 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 HT 2-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
12.03.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
02.10.2021 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-3 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
24.04.2021 Paderborn Paderborn 2-1 HT 0-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2

Paderborn 4-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
4-3
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.47 xG 2.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
331 Passes 360
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn nicked a narrow win over Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-3. Half-time: 3-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 39%) promised a tight game; Paderborn found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paderborn had 48% of the ball to Fortuna Düsseldorf's 52%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.47 to 2.50 — on chances, Fortuna Düsseldorf could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paderborn had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Paderborn and 1.33 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

Paderborn 4-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fortuna Düsseldorf win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 34%, draw 27%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 39%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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