Independiente 0-1 Gimnasia La Plata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 4 Feb 2024

Independiente
0-1 HT 0-1
Gimnasia La Plata
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Argentina - Premier League – 2024

Independiente vs Gimnasia La Plata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
71%
1.48
Over 2.5
29%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
2.19
No
67%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
44%
2.16
2-3 Goals
34%
1.8
4-5 Goals
14%
5.75
6+ Goals
8%
34.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.16 — our 44% vs market 39.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.8
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
15.1
X/1
15%
4.03
X/2
11%
7.43
X/X
15%
3.56
2/1
8%
33.0
2/2
10%
6.58
2/X
10%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.4pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.0pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.4pp
71%
Under 2.5
64%
+7.0pp
29%
Over 2.5
36%
-7.0pp
33%
BTTS Yes
42%
-9.0pp
67%
BTTS No
58%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independiente v Gimnasia La Plata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 27%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.31/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.28
-6% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
313 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 69%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
20.3 Crosses 17.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9

Independiente vs Gimnasia La Plata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.86 xG 0.80
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
338 Passes 242
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
17 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
08.07.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
04.09.2022 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 3-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
12.10.2021 Independiente Independiente 1-1 HT 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
28.02.2021 Independiente Independiente 1-0 HT 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
23.02.2020 Independiente Independiente 0-1 HT 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ

Independiente 0-1 Gimnasia La Plata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente
0-1
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
0.93 xG 0.82
67% Ball Possession 33%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
388 Passes 150
80% Pass Accuracy 64%
30 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 14
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Independiente vs Gimnasia La Plata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gimnasia La Plata squeezed past Independiente 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (71%), no to both teams scoring (67%) came in.

On the day, Independiente had 67% of the ball to Gimnasia La Plata's 33%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 0.93 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Independiente and 1.17 for Gimnasia La Plata.

What was the final score of Independiente vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Independiente 0-1 Gimnasia La Plata in the Argentina - Premier League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Independiente 43%, draw 31%, Gimnasia La Plata 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Independiente) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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