Canberra United (K) 3-1 Melbourne City (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 4 Feb 2024

Canberra United (K)
3-1 HT 2-0
Melbourne City (K)
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2023/2024

Canberra United (K) vs Melbourne City (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.71
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
58%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
31%
3.17
Over 2.5
69%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.43
No
38%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
21%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
11%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
3%
2/2
35%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
18%
+4.2pp
20%
Draw
19%
+1.6pp
58%
Away Win
64%
-5.8pp
31%
Under 2.5
28%
+3.0pp
69%
Over 2.5
72%
-3.0pp
62%
BTTS Yes
66%
-3.2pp
38%
BTTS No
34%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Canberra United (K) v Melbourne City (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Canberra United (K) EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City (K) EU Bookmakers 69%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
1.66/3.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.65/0.72
+120% / -79% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +86% / +100%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
255 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 79%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.5
22.0 Crosses 14.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Canberra United (K) vs Melbourne City (K) Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Canberra United (K)
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Melbourne City (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.09 xG 2.42
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
238 Passes 376
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.11.2019 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) 1-2 HT 0-0 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
22.12.2018 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 3-0 HT 3-0 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) AVUSTW
28.10.2018 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) 2-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
10.12.2017 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 2-1 HT 1-1 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) AVUSTW

Canberra United (K) 3-1 Melbourne City (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Canberra United (K)
3-1
AWAY Melbourne City (K)
1.47 xG 1.60
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 12
201 Passes 484
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 37
7 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Canberra United (K) vs Melbourne City (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Canberra United (K) got the better of Melbourne City (K) 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Melbourne City (K) at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (69%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Canberra United (K) had 33% of the ball to Melbourne City (K)'s 67%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 1.47 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Melbourne City (K) led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Canberra United (K) and 1.75 for Melbourne City (K).

What was the final score of Canberra United (K) vs Melbourne City (K)?

Canberra United (K) 3-1 Melbourne City (K) in the Australia - W-League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Canberra United (K) vs Melbourne City (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Canberra United (K) 22%, draw 20%, Melbourne City (K) 58%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Melbourne City (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne City (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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