Macarthur 4-3 Western Sydney Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 4 Feb 2024

Macarthur
4-3 HT 3-3
Western Sydney Wanderers
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.39
2-3 Goals
36%
1.99
4-5 Goals
25%
2.65
6+ Goals
15%
6.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
4.08
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.75
1/X
10%
12.6
X/1
7%
6.76
X/2
13%
5.22
X/X
10%
5.81
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
18%
2.86
2/X
5%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.75 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
33%
+2.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
40%
Away Win
43%
-3.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.1pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Western Sydney Wanderers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers EU Bookmakers 48%
+13% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -9%
1.64/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.52
+14% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -12%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
297 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 82%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.5
20.1 Crosses 25.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.11 xG 2.02
46% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
342 Passes 449
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.01.2024 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 3-1 HT 2-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
08.04.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 2-2 HT 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
25.02.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 4-0 HT 2-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
01.01.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 4-0 HT 2-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
08.05.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 1-1 HT 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
12.03.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 3-1 HT 1-0 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS

Macarthur 4-3 Western Sydney Wanderers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
4-3
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
2.38 xG 1.64
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 9
8 Corners 5
302 Passes 371
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
31 Box Touches 29
25 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur squeezed past Western Sydney Wanderers 4-3. The game was level at 3-3 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Macarthur found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Macarthur had 47% of the ball to Western Sydney Wanderers's 53%, shots finished 15-20, expected goals 2.38 to 1.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Western Sydney Wanderers led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Macarthur and 2.50 for Western Sydney Wanderers.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Macarthur 4-3 Western Sydney Wanderers in the Australia - A-League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Western Sydney Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 35%, draw 25%, Western Sydney Wanderers 40%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Western Sydney Wanderers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Western Sydney Wanderers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →