Sumqayıt 2-1 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 4 Feb 2024

Sumqayıt
2-1 HT 2-0
Neftçi PFK
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2025/2026

Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.29
Draw
33%
3.11
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.52
Over 2.5
33%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
10%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
27%
-1.8pp
33%
Draw
29%
+3.6pp
42%
Away Win
44%
-1.7pp
67%
Under 2.5
62%
+5.4pp
33%
Over 2.5
38%
-5.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.0pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sumqayıt v Neftçi PFK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
0.85/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.01
-25% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +8%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
253 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.9

Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sumqayıt
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.01.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-3 HT 0-3 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
11.11.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-2 HT 1-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
02.09.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-1 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
08.04.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-4 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
05.02.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-0 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
05.11.2022 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-2 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sumqayıt nicked a narrow win over Neftçi PFK 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Neftçi PFK at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sumqayıt and 2.17 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK?

Sumqayıt 2-1 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sumqayıt 25%, draw 33%, Neftçi PFK 42%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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