Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Bhayangkara United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
Over 2.5
49%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
25%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
41%
+5.9pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.8pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Persebaya Surabaya EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bhayangkara United EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +16%
1.34/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/0.97
-1% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +36%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
316 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Persebaya Surabaya
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Bhayangkara United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
08.08.2023 Bhayangkara United Bhayangkara United 1-2 HT 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
23.01.2023 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 HT 1-1 Bhayangkara United Bhayangkara United ENDL1
07.08.2022 Bhayangkara United Bhayangkara United 1-0 HT 0-0 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
18.01.2022 Bhayangkara United Bhayangkara United 2-1 HT 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
24.09.2021 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 0-1 HT 0-0 Bhayangkara United Bhayangkara United ENDL1
08.12.2019 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 4-0 HT 1-0 Bhayangkara United Bhayangkara United ENDL1
POST-MATCH Persebaya Surabaya vs Bhayangkara United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persebaya Surabaya nicked a narrow win over Bhayangkara United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Persebaya Surabaya as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 1.00 for Bhayangkara United.

What was the final score of Persebaya Surabaya vs Bhayangkara United?

Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Bhayangkara United in the Indonesia League 1 on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Persebaya Surabaya vs Bhayangkara United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Persebaya Surabaya win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Persebaya Surabaya 47%, draw 24%, Bhayangkara United 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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