Lobos UPNFM 1-1 Real Espana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+4.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
41%
Away Win
44%
-3.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.1pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Espana EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.17/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.21
-2% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -9%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
264 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lobos UPNFM
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Real Espana
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
08.10.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-3 HT 1-1 Real Espana Real Espana HON
12.08.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 2-1 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
08.05.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 2-0 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
05.05.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
17.04.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 3-1 HT 1-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
16.02.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-1 HT 0-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
POST-MATCH Lobos UPNFM vs Real Espana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lobos UPNFM and Real Espana couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Real Espana at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Espana led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 1.83 for Real Espana.

What was the final score of Lobos UPNFM vs Real Espana?

Lobos UPNFM 1-1 Real Espana in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lobos UPNFM vs Real Espana?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Espana win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lobos UPNFM 34%, draw 25%, Real Espana 41%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Espana) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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