Hamrun Spartans 4-1 Naxxar Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 4-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.27
Draw
16%
5.15
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.18
Over 2.5
62%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.27
No
46%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
28%
4-5 Goals
36%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
75%
-7.6pp
16%
Draw
17%
-0.9pp
17%
Away Win
9%
+8.6pp
38%
Under 2.5
42%
-3.8pp
62%
Over 2.5
58%
+3.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
40%
+13.7pp
46%
BTTS No
60%
-13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamrun Spartans EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Naxxar Lions EU Bookmakers 11%
+11% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +43% / +43%
1.69/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.77
+0% / +119% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +71% / -7%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
429 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamrun Spartans
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Naxxar Lions
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
8 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
23.09.2023 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 0-4 HT 0-2 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamrun Spartans
4-1
AWAY Naxxar Lions
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 0
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hamrun Spartans vs Naxxar Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamrun Spartans swept aside Naxxar Lions 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hamrun Spartans as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Hamrun Spartans had 48% of the ball to Naxxar Lions's 52%, shots finished 10-4.

What was the final score of Hamrun Spartans vs Naxxar Lions?

Hamrun Spartans 4-1 Naxxar Lions in the Malta - Premier League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamrun Spartans vs Naxxar Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamrun Spartans win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Hamrun Spartans 67%, draw 16%, Naxxar Lions 17%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamrun Spartans), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hamrun Spartans) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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