Sepsi 1-3 Universitatea Craiova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Romania - 1st Division, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
4.17
6+ Goals
10%
20.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.6pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.6pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sepsi EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Universitatea Craiova EU Bookmakers 32%
-11% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
0.96/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.49
-22% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
331 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sepsi
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Universitatea Craiova
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
353 Passes 334
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2023 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 2-1 HT 2-1 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
21.04.2023 Sepsi Sepsi 1-2 HT 0-0 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROM
29.10.2022 Sepsi Sepsi 0-1 HT 0-0 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROM
15.07.2022 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 2-2 HT 1-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROM
12.05.2022 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 0-1 HT 0-0 Sepsi Sepsi ROK
20.04.2022 Sepsi Sepsi 2-1 HT 1-0 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova ROK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sepsi
1-3
AWAY Universitatea Craiova
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Universitatea Craiova beat Sepsi 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sepsi at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sepsi had 46% of the ball to Universitatea Craiova's 54%, shots finished 12-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Universitatea Craiova led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sepsi and 1.33 for Universitatea Craiova.

What was the final score of Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova?

Sepsi 1-3 Universitatea Craiova in the Romania - 1st Division on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sepsi win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sepsi 43%, draw 26%, Universitatea Craiova 31%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sepsi), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sepsi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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