Tuzlaspor 2-1 Manisa FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.84
6+ Goals
9%
17.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 32% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
5.13
1/2
13%
26.5
1/X
11%
13.75
X/1
7%
6.8
X/2
12%
4.52
X/X
14%
4.38
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
12%
2.89
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+2.5pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.2pp
37%
Away Win
44%
-6.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tuzlaspor EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Manisa FK EU Bookmakers 48%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.20/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/0.83
+4% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
14.9 Crosses 14.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tuzlaspor
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Manisa FK
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.48 xG 1.54
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
373 Passes 339
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Manisa FK Manisa FK 4-0 HT 0-0 Tuzlaspor T1L
16.05.2023 Tuzlaspor 1-2 HT 1-1 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
17.12.2022 Manisa FK Manisa FK 1-0 HT 0-0 Tuzlaspor T1L
14.05.2022 Manisa FK Manisa FK 4-1 HT 2-1 Tuzlaspor T1L
19.12.2021 Tuzlaspor 0-1 HT 0-1 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
28.07.2020 Tuzlaspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Manisa FK Manisa FK S2P
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tuzlaspor
2-1
AWAY Manisa FK
1.12 xG 0.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
303 Passes 317
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 9
11 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tuzlaspor vs Manisa FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tuzlaspor edged past Manisa FK 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 31% / 37% — and on the day Tuzlaspor made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tuzlaspor had 49% of the ball to Manisa FK's 51%, shots finished 8-6, expected goals 1.12 to 0.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manisa FK led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Tuzlaspor and 2.00 for Manisa FK.

What was the final score of Tuzlaspor vs Manisa FK?

Tuzlaspor 2-1 Manisa FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tuzlaspor vs Manisa FK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manisa FK win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Tuzlaspor 32%, draw 31%, Manisa FK 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Manisa FK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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