Merthyr Town 1-1 Basingstoke Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 4 Feb 2025

📅04/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.66
Draw
30%
3.94
Away
17%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
Over 2.5
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
56%
-2.3pp
30%
Draw
22%
+8.2pp
17%
Away Win
22%
-5.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.4pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Basingstoke Town EU Bookmakers 26%
-4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
2.77/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.90
+47% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Merthyr Town
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Basingstoke Town
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
06.01.2024 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 4-1 HT 3-1 Basingstoke Town Basingstoke Town İNGNLP
03.10.2023 Basingstoke Town Basingstoke Town 1-3 HT 1-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Merthyr Town
1-1
AWAY Basingstoke Town
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Merthyr Town vs Basingstoke Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town and Basingstoke Town couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Merthyr Town at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Merthyr Town had 65% of the ball to Basingstoke Town's 35%, shots finished 12-5.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Merthyr Town had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Merthyr Town and 1.00 for Basingstoke Town.

What was the final score of Merthyr Town vs Basingstoke Town?

Merthyr Town 1-1 Basingstoke Town in the England - Non League Premier on 04/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merthyr Town vs Basingstoke Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Merthyr Town 53%, draw 30%, Basingstoke Town 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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