Merthyr Town 4-1 Basingstoke Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.47
Draw
37%
4.49
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
Over 2.5
49%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
4%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
16%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
64%
-20.1pp
37%
Draw
19%
+17.8pp
19%
Away Win
17%
+2.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.7pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Basingstoke Town EU Bookmakers 20%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
2.36/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/2.62
+14% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -25%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
440 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Merthyr Town
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Basingstoke Town
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 5
03.10.2023 Basingstoke Town Basingstoke Town 1-3 HT 1-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Merthyr Town
4-1
AWAY Basingstoke Town
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Merthyr Town vs Basingstoke Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town cruised past Basingstoke Town 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Merthyr Town as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Merthyr Town had 47% of the ball to Basingstoke Town's 53%, shots finished 12-13.

What was the final score of Merthyr Town vs Basingstoke Town?

Merthyr Town 4-1 Basingstoke Town in the England - Non League Premier on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merthyr Town vs Basingstoke Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Merthyr Town 44%, draw 37%, Basingstoke Town 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merthyr Town), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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