Stevenage 0-1 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 4 Feb 2025

📅04/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.46
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
38%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.8
2-3 Goals
35%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.73
6+ Goals
11%
16.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 32% vs market 28.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.73
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
6%
14.55
X/1
13%
7.3
X/2
14%
4.52
X/X
14%
4.48
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.75
2/X
6%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
26%
+9.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
38%
Away Win
47%
-9.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stevenage EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 51%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+46% / -58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
271 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 74%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stevenage
0-1
AWAY Birmingham
0.67 xG 1.39
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 9
221 Passes 356
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Box Touches 33
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stevenage vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham squeezed past Stevenage 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Birmingham made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Stevenage had 41% of the ball to Birmingham's 59%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.67 to 1.39.

What was the final score of Stevenage vs Birmingham?

Stevenage 0-1 Birmingham in the England - Futbol League Cup on 04/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stevenage vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Stevenage 35%, draw 27%, Birmingham 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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