Port Vale 1-4 Wrexham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 4 Feb 2025

Port Vale
1-4 HT 1-1
Wrexham
📅04/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Futbol League Cup – 2024/2025

Port Vale vs Wrexham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
41%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
3.5
6+ Goals
11%
14.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.94
1/2
7%
24.3
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
15.55
X/1
12%
8.6
X/2
11%
4.24
X/X
8%
4.83
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.36
2/X
8%
14.2
Value flag · 1/X at 15.55 — our 9% vs market 3.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
23%
+10.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
41%
Away Win
52%
-11.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Port Vale v Wrexham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Vale EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Wrexham EU Bookmakers 56%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +37% / +37%
0.80/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/0.32
-9% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / –
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
297 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 69%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
11.8 Crosses 17.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Port Vale vs Wrexham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Vale
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Wrexham
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.77 xG 1.90
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
426 Passes 300
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.11.2024 Port Vale Port Vale 1-1 HT 0-0 Wrexham Wrexham İNTK
07.11.2023 Wrexham Wrexham 2-1 HT 0-1 Port Vale Port Vale İNTK
14.08.2007 Port Vale Port Vale 1-1 HT 1-1 Wrexham Wrexham İNLK
26.04.2005 Port Vale Port Vale 0-2 HT 0-2 Wrexham Wrexham İN1
21.08.2004 Wrexham Wrexham 1-1 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
10.04.2004 Port Vale Port Vale 1-0 HT 0-0 Wrexham Wrexham İN1

Port Vale 1-4 Wrexham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Port Vale
1-4
AWAY Wrexham
0.56 xG 2.68
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
288 Passes 372
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Port Vale vs Wrexham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wrexham cruised past Port Vale 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Wrexham as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Port Vale had 45% of the ball to Wrexham's 55%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.56 to 2.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wrexham led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Port Vale and 1.17 for Wrexham.

What was the final score of Port Vale vs Wrexham?

Port Vale 1-4 Wrexham in the England - Futbol League Cup on 04/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Wrexham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wrexham win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 33%, draw 26%, Wrexham 41%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wrexham) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wrexham) ✗ Under 2.5
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