Port Vale 1-1 Wrexham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 12 Nov 2024

📅12/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.22
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.66
6+ Goals
10%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 30% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Port Vale win — 39%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.1pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Port Vale EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Wrexham EU Bookmakers 40%
+35% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.47/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/0.48
-9% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
271 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 72%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.3 Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Port Vale
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Wrexham
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.66 xG 2.40
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
389 Passes 291
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
07.11.2023 Wrexham Wrexham 2-1 HT 0-1 Port Vale Port Vale İNTK
14.08.2007 Port Vale Port Vale 1-1 HT 1-1 Wrexham Wrexham İNLK
26.04.2005 Port Vale Port Vale 0-2 HT 0-2 Wrexham Wrexham İN1
21.08.2004 Wrexham Wrexham 1-1 HT 0-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
10.04.2004 Port Vale Port Vale 1-0 HT 0-0 Wrexham Wrexham İN1
04.10.2003 Wrexham Wrexham 2-1 HT 1-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Port Vale
1-1
AWAY Wrexham
0.87 xG 1.39
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
463 Passes 308
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 26
POST-MATCH Port Vale vs Wrexham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Port Vale and Wrexham shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Port Vale had 57% of the ball to Wrexham's 43%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 0.87 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wrexham led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Port Vale and 1.33 for Wrexham.

What was the final score of Port Vale vs Wrexham?

Port Vale 1-1 Wrexham in the England - Futbol League Cup on 12/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Wrexham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 39%, draw 27%, Wrexham 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Port Vale) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Port Vale) ✓ Under 2.5
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