Al Gharafa 1-0 Pakhtakor Tashkent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 4 Feb 2025

Al Gharafa
1-0 HT 1-0
Pakhtakor Tashkent
📅04/02/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
AFC Sampiyonlar League – 2024/2025

Al Gharafa vs Pakhtakor Tashkent Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
35%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.9
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
2.9
6+ Goals
11%
8.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.71
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
10%
4.89
X/2
12%
7.3
X/X
15%
5.36
2/1
8%
22.1
2/2
13%
5.01
2/X
5%
13.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.0 — our 10% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
47%
-9.7pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.7pp
35%
Away Win
28%
+6.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.2pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Al Gharafa v Pakhtakor Tashkent — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Pakhtakor Tashkent EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
0.54/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.95
+23% / -59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +50%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
385 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 81%
14.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
13.3 Crosses 21.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7

Al Gharafa vs Pakhtakor Tashkent Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Gharafa
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Pakhtakor Tashkent
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 13
211 Passes 402
66% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 28
8 Crosses 36
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.01.2018 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 2-1 HT 2-0 Pakhtakor Tashkent Pakhtakor Tashkent AŞMP

Al Gharafa 1-0 Pakhtakor Tashkent — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Gharafa
1-0
AWAY Pakhtakor Tashkent
1.14 xG 0.11
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 2
3 Shots on Target 0
1 Corners 3
251 Passes 297
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
13 Box Touches 10
8 Crosses 22
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Gharafa vs Pakhtakor Tashkent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Gharafa nicked a narrow win over Pakhtakor Tashkent 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Al Gharafa found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Al Gharafa had 46% of the ball to Pakhtakor Tashkent's 54%, shots finished 13-2, expected goals 1.14 to 0.11.

What was the final score of Al Gharafa vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

Al Gharafa 1-0 Pakhtakor Tashkent in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 04/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Gharafa vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Al Gharafa 37%, draw 28%, Pakhtakor Tashkent 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Gharafa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Gharafa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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