Arba Minch Kenema 3-3 Hadiya Hosaena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 4 Feb 2025

📅04/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
37%
2.66
Away
34%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
67%
Over 2.5
33%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.44
No
56%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 67%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Draw BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
31%
-1.5pp
37%
Draw
34%
+2.3pp
34%
Away Win
35%
-0.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
37%
+6.7pp
56%
BTTS No
63%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arba Minch Kenema EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Hadiya Hosaena EU Bookmakers 38%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.26/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/0.57
+28% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +68%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
323 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arba Minch Kenema
3-3
AWAY Hadiya Hosaena
47% Ball Possession 53%
6 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arba Minch Kenema vs Hadiya Hosaena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arba Minch Kenema and Hadiya Hosaena couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 29% / 37% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arba Minch Kenema had 47% of the ball to Hadiya Hosaena's 53%, shots finished 6-9.

What was the final score of Arba Minch Kenema vs Hadiya Hosaena?

Arba Minch Kenema 3-3 Hadiya Hosaena in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 04/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arba Minch Kenema vs Hadiya Hosaena?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Arba Minch Kenema 29%, draw 37%, Hadiya Hosaena 34%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Draw) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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