Cerro 1-1 CA River Plate — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 4 Feb 2025

📅04/02/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-6.0pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.1pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+4.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.0pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -11%
1.37/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.07
+7% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
290 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 191 · 64%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro
3W-1D-2L
AWAY CA River Plate
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.11.2024 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Cerro URU
26.05.2024 Cerro Cerro 3-2 HT 0-2 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
06.03.2024 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 4-5 CA River Plate CA River Plate URUK
09.10.2023 Cerro Cerro 1-0 HT 1-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
25.02.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 3-2 HT 2-1 Cerro Cerro URU
20.01.2021 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-2 HT 1-1 Cerro Cerro URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro
1-1
AWAY CA River Plate
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cerro vs CA River Plate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro and CA River Plate couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Cerro had 42% of the ball to CA River Plate's 58%, shots finished 8-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cerro and 1.33 for CA River Plate.

What was the final score of Cerro vs CA River Plate?

Cerro 1-1 CA River Plate in the Uruguay - Premier League on 04/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro vs CA River Plate?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Cerro 37%, draw 30%, CA River Plate 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cerro), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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