Independiente Rivadavia 2-1 CA Sarmiento — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 4 Feb 2026

📅04/02/2026 · 🕒03:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
18%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.4
No
61%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.11
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
18%
5.76
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.43
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
16.65
X/1
18%
3.93
X/2
4%
9.34
X/X
16%
3.81
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
10%
8.86
2/X
7%
18.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
53%
+1.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
18%
Away Win
19%
-0.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.6pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+2.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
38%
+2.0pp
61%
BTTS No
62%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Rivadavia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 22%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +12%
1.03/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.36
-36% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
271 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 193 · 70%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
25.1 Crosses 17.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Rivadavia
1W-0D-1L
AWAY CA Sarmiento
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.59 xG 0.54
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
207 Passes 153
65% Pass Accuracy 61%
13 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.05.2024 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Rivadavia Independiente Rivadavia ARJ
06.10.2014 Independiente Rivadavia Independiente Rivadavia 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJPBN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Rivadavia
2-1
AWAY CA Sarmiento
41% Ball Possession 59%
19 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 1
187 Passes 307
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Independiente Rivadavia vs CA Sarmiento
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Rivadavia nicked a narrow win over CA Sarmiento 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Independiente Rivadavia as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Rivadavia had 41% of the ball to CA Sarmiento's 59%, shots finished 19-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Independiente Rivadavia and 1.00 for CA Sarmiento.

What was the final score of Independiente Rivadavia vs CA Sarmiento?

Independiente Rivadavia 2-1 CA Sarmiento in the Argentina - Premier League on 04/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Rivadavia vs CA Sarmiento?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Rivadavia win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Independiente Rivadavia 54%, draw 28%, CA Sarmiento 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Rivadavia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Rivadavia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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