Chelmsford City 0-1 Worthing — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 4 Mar 2024

📅04/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.21
Over 2.5
44%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.53
No
55%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
4.47
2-3 Goals
36%
1.89
4-5 Goals
21%
2.92
6+ Goals
9%
8.54
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.47 — our 34% vs market 17.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
-4.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
41%
+14.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
59%
-14.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
61%
-16.6pp
55%
BTTS No
39%
+16.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelmsford City EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Worthing EU Bookmakers 36%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +14%
1.48/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.30
-4% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
272 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelmsford City
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Worthing
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.01.2024 Worthing Worthing 2-3 HT 1-2 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
18.03.2023 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 4-2 HT 1-2 Worthing Worthing İCON
26.11.2022 Worthing Worthing 1-3 HT 1-2 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelmsford City
0-1
AWAY Worthing
47% Ball Possession 53%
19 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chelmsford City vs Worthing
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Worthing edged past Chelmsford City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Worthing found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Chelmsford City had 47% of the ball to Worthing's 53%, shots finished 19-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Chelmsford City had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Chelmsford City and 1.67 for Worthing.

What was the final score of Chelmsford City vs Worthing?

Chelmsford City 0-1 Worthing in the England - Conference on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelmsford City vs Worthing?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelmsford City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Chelmsford City 39%, draw 25%, Worthing 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Chelmsford City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chelmsford City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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