Boca Juniors 3-2 Belgrano Cordoba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 4 Mar 2024

📅04/03/2024 · 🕒01:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.66
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.28
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
16.4
X/1
19%
3.68
X/2
6%
9.35
X/X
14%
4.32
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
13%
8.22
2/X
5%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.6pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boca Juniors EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Belgrano Cordoba EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -8%
1.57/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.51
+6% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -11%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
369 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 217 · 67%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
23.1 Crosses 17.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boca Juniors
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Belgrano Cordoba
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.97 xG 1.03
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
368 Passes 222
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.10.2023 Belgrano Cordoba Belgrano Cordoba 4-3 HT 4-2 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
15.05.2023 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 2-0 HT 0-0 Belgrano Cordoba Belgrano Cordoba ARJ
11.02.2019 Belgrano Cordoba Belgrano Cordoba 1-1 HT 0-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
30.10.2017 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 4-0 HT 2-0 Belgrano Cordoba Belgrano Cordoba ARJ
12.09.2016 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 3-0 HT 2-0 Belgrano Cordoba Belgrano Cordoba ARJ
27.07.2015 Belgrano Cordoba Belgrano Cordoba 0-1 HT 0-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boca Juniors
3-2
AWAY Belgrano Cordoba
3.28 xG 0.56
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
393 Passes 163
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
31 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Boca Juniors vs Belgrano Cordoba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boca Juniors nicked a narrow win over Belgrano Cordoba 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Boca Juniors as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Boca Juniors had 66% of the ball to Belgrano Cordoba's 34%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 3.28 to 0.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Boca Juniors's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Boca Juniors had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.83 for Belgrano Cordoba.

What was the final score of Boca Juniors vs Belgrano Cordoba?

Boca Juniors 3-2 Belgrano Cordoba in the Argentina - Premier League on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boca Juniors vs Belgrano Cordoba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boca Juniors win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Boca Juniors 47%, draw 28%, Belgrano Cordoba 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Boca Juniors) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Boca Juniors) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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