Newells Old Boys 2-2 San Lorenzo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 4 Mar 2024

📅04/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
35%
2.77
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
74%
1.36
Over 2.5
26%
2.98
Both Teams to Score
Yes
30%
2.51
No
70%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
47%
1.83
2-3 Goals
37%
1.91
4-5 Goals
10%
7.85
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.25
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.8
X/1
15%
4.24
X/2
14%
6.85
X/X
20%
3.04
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
7%
6.31
2/X
7%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 74%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-4.9pp
35%
Draw
32%
+2.5pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.5pp
74%
Under 2.5
70%
+3.9pp
26%
Over 2.5
30%
-3.9pp
30%
BTTS Yes
36%
-5.9pp
70%
BTTS No
64%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newells Old Boys EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 28%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.06/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.07
-27% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +41%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
315 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 71%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
22.0 Crosses 15.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newells Old Boys
3W-1D-2L
AWAY San Lorenzo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.96 xG 0.99
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
323 Passes 278
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.10.2023 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 0-3 HT 0-1 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys ARJ
21.03.2023 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 1-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
10.06.2022 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 0-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
28.04.2022 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 1-2 HT 0-1 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
12.12.2021 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 3-2 HT 2-2 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys ARJ
04.02.2020 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 1-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newells Old Boys
2-2
AWAY San Lorenzo
0.31 xG 0.78
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
294 Passes 256
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newells Old Boys vs San Lorenzo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newells Old Boys and San Lorenzo shared the points in a 2-2 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 35% / 27% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (74%), no to both teams scoring (70%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Newells Old Boys had 54% of the ball to San Lorenzo's 46%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.31 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newells Old Boys had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Newells Old Boys and 0.83 for San Lorenzo.

What was the final score of Newells Old Boys vs San Lorenzo?

Newells Old Boys 2-2 San Lorenzo in the Argentina - Premier League on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newells Old Boys vs San Lorenzo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newells Old Boys win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Newells Old Boys 38%, draw 35%, San Lorenzo 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Newells Old Boys) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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