Monterrey 3-0 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 4 Mar 2024

📅04/03/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.36
6+ Goals
9%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 30% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-8.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.83/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.63
+2% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 74%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
20.2 Crosses 17.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.54 xG 0.79
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
360 Passes 324
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-1 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
30.04.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 4-1 HT 4-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
31.07.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 1-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
17.04.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
01.08.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 2-0 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
07.02.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 1-0 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
3-0
AWAY Pumas UNAM
2.64 xG 0.42
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
464 Passes 295
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
47 Box Touches 10
27 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey swept aside Pumas UNAM 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Monterrey as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Monterrey had 60% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 40%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 2.64 to 0.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Monterrey and 0.67 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Pumas UNAM?

Monterrey 3-0 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 47%, draw 25%, Pumas UNAM 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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