Tijuana 1-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 4 Mar 2024

Tijuana
1-1 HT 0-0
Leon
📅04/03/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Tijuana vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.15
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.56
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.15 — our 26% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.9pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tijuana v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 36%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -8%
1.67/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.33
+11% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
20.9 Crosses 15.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Tijuana vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Leon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.25 xG 1.53
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
293 Passes 336
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.09.2023 Leon Leon 1-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
22.04.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 0-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
03.10.2022 Leon Leon 2-2 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
16.01.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
01.08.2021 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
13.02.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 2-0 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK

Tijuana 1-1 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
1-1
AWAY Leon
1.76 xG 1.15
56% Ball Possession 44%
21 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
338 Passes 253
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana and Leon shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Tijuana at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Tijuana had 56% of the ball to Leon's 44%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 1.76 to 1.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tijuana and 1.00 for Leon.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Leon?

Tijuana 1-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 41%, draw 24%, Leon 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tijuana), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tijuana) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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