Vilaverdense 0-1 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 4 Mar 2024

📅04/03/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.32
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.01
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
17.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
+0.2pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.9pp
43%
Away Win
46%
-3.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 50%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
0.96/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.29
-19% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -67% /
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
295 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.3 Crosses 23.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vilaverdense
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.69 xG 1.98
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 6
206 Passes 241
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 1
07.10.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-0 HT 0-0 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vilaverdense
0-1
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
0.34 xG 0.87
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 15
0 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
238 Passes 376
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vilaverdense vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paços De Ferreira nicked a narrow win over Vilaverdense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Paços De Ferreira as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Vilaverdense had 41% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 59%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.34 to 0.87.

What was the final score of Vilaverdense vs Paços De Ferreira?

Vilaverdense 0-1 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vilaverdense vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vilaverdense 27%, draw 30%, Paços De Ferreira 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paços De Ferreira), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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