Rayo Vallecano 0-4 Espanyol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 4 Apr 2025

Rayo Vallecano
0-4 HT 0-2
Espanyol
📅04/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
58%
1.56
Over 2.5
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.27
No
58%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.37
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.88
6+ Goals
8%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.21
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.6
X/1
19%
3.89
X/2
8%
10.35
X/X
15%
4.23
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
10%
9.64
2/X
6%
18.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+7.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.1pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Espanyol EU Bookmakers 21%
-7% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.79/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.80
-12% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
396 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 71%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
26.7 Crosses 13.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Espanyol
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.09 xG 1.07
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
329 Passes 320
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
31.08.2024 Espanyol Espanyol 2-1 HT 1-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
21.05.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-2 HT 1-1 Espanyol Espanyol İS1
19.08.2022 Espanyol Espanyol 0-2 HT 0-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
21.04.2022 Espanyol Espanyol 0-1 HT 0-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
05.12.2021 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-0 HT 0-0 Espanyol Espanyol İS1
24.07.2021 Espanyol Espanyol 0-2 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano HAZ

Rayo Vallecano 0-4 Espanyol — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
0-4
AWAY Espanyol
0.67 xG 3.38
70% Ball Possession 30%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 4
488 Passes 172
89% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 20
37 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Espanyol ran out comfortable winners over Rayo Vallecano 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Rayo Vallecano at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (58%) landed while under 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 70% of the ball to Espanyol's 30%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 0.67 to 3.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rayo Vallecano had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.67 for Espanyol.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?

Rayo Vallecano 0-4 Espanyol in the Spain - Primera Liga on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 48%, draw 28%, Espanyol 24%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Rayo Vallecano), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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