Heerenveen vs Willem II Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Heerenveen v Willem II — Team-Based Signals
Heerenveen vs Willem II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Heerenveen
HOL
2-1
HT 0-0
Willem II
HOL
3-1
HT 1-0
Heerenveen
HOL
2-0
HT 1-0
Willem II
HOL
2-2
HT 0-1
Willem II
HOK
Heerenveen 3-1 Willem II — Actual Match Statistics
Heerenveen beat Willem II 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Heerenveen as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Heerenveen had 49% of the ball to Willem II's 51%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 1.61 to 1.13.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heerenveen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Heerenveen and 1.17 for Willem II.
What was the final score of Heerenveen vs Willem II?
Heerenveen 3-1 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs Willem II?
Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 58%, draw 22%, Willem II 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heerenveen), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.