Ario Eslamshahr 3-1 Naft Masjed Soleyman — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Azadegan League, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.33
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31%
2.81
No
69%
1.38
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
42%
2.47
2-3 Goals
35%
1.73
4-5 Goals
17%
4.39
6+ Goals
6%
23.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.47 — our 42% vs market 33.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
71%
-11.2pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.9pp
16%
Away Win
9%
+6.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.3pp
31%
BTTS Yes
32%
-0.7pp
69%
BTTS No
68%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ario Eslamshahr EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Naft Masjed Soleyman EU Bookmakers 12%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.31/0.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.44/1.30
-19% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +10%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
368 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ario Eslamshahr
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
10.11.2024 Naft Masjed Soleyman Naft Masjed Soleyman 1-1 HT 0-0 Ario Eslamshahr Ario Eslamshahr IRANAZ
21.02.2024 Ario Eslamshahr Ario Eslamshahr 0-0 HT 0-0 Naft Masjed Soleyman Naft Masjed Soleyman IRANAZ
17.09.2023 Naft Masjed Soleyman Naft Masjed Soleyman 1-2 HT 0-1 Ario Eslamshahr Ario Eslamshahr IRANAZ
POST-MATCH Ario Eslamshahr vs Naft Masjed Soleyman
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ario Eslamshahr beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ario Eslamshahr as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (69%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ario Eslamshahr had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ario Eslamshahr and 0.67 for Naft Masjed Soleyman.

What was the final score of Ario Eslamshahr vs Naft Masjed Soleyman?

Ario Eslamshahr 3-1 Naft Masjed Soleyman in the Iran - Azadegan League on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ario Eslamshahr vs Naft Masjed Soleyman?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ario Eslamshahr win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Ario Eslamshahr 60%, draw 25%, Naft Masjed Soleyman 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ario Eslamshahr) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ario Eslamshahr) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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