Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chiangrai United v Nong Bua Pitchaya — Team-Based Signals
Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
Chiangrai United
TAY
2-0
HT 0-0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
TAY
2-1
HT 1-1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
TAY
Chiangrai United
TAY
Chiangrai United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya — Actual Match Statistics
Chiangrai United edged past Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chiangrai United as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Chiangrai United had 53% of the ball to Nong Bua Pitchaya's 47%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 0.86 to 1.27 — on chances, Nong Bua Pitchaya could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Chiangrai United had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Chiangrai United and 0.60 for Nong Bua Pitchaya.
What was the final score of Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Chiangrai United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya in the Thailand - 1st Division on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chiangrai United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Chiangrai United 43%, draw 28%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chiangrai United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.