Sydney 4-0 Macarthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 4 May 2024

Sydney
4-0 HT 1-0
Macarthur
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒12:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Sydney vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
18%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.96
Over 2.5
63%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.46
No
41%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.89
2-3 Goals
38%
2.18
4-5 Goals
29%
2.47
6+ Goals
14%
4.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.83
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.3
X/1
17%
4.17
X/2
8%
12.05
X/X
12%
7.43
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
18.55
2/2
5%
7.65
2/X
8%
15.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.55 — our 9% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-6.8pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.5pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.4pp
37%
Under 2.5
30%
+6.6pp
63%
Over 2.5
70%
-6.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.2pp
41%
BTTS No
36%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sydney v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sydney EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Macarthur EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +23%
1.96/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/2.05
+3% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
37.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
20.0 Crosses 19.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7

Sydney vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sydney
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Macarthur
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.72 xG 1.21
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
490 Passes 276
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
36 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.04.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-0 HT 1-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
09.12.2023 Sydney Sydney 0-2 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
24.12.2022 Sydney Sydney 0-3 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
29.10.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 2-3 HT 1-2 Sydney Sydney AVUS
30.03.2022 Sydney Sydney 2-2 HT 1-2 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
26.12.2021 Macarthur Macarthur 0-3 HT 0-2 Sydney Sydney AVUS

Sydney 4-0 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sydney
4-0
AWAY Macarthur
2.25 xG 1.28
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 9
13 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 0
535 Passes 217
87% Pass Accuracy 66%
43 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sydney vs Macarthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sydney ran out comfortable winners over Macarthur 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sydney as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (63%) landed while both teams to score (59%) missed.

On the day, Sydney had 65% of the ball to Macarthur's 35%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 2.25 to 1.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macarthur led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sydney and 1.67 for Macarthur.

What was the final score of Sydney vs Macarthur?

Sydney 4-0 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sydney vs Macarthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sydney win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Sydney 54%, draw 27%, Macarthur 18%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sydney), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sydney) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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