Macarthur 1-0 Sydney — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 20 Apr 2024

Macarthur
1-0 HT 1-0
Sydney
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒12:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Macarthur vs Sydney Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.75
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
51%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.89
Over 2.5
64%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.41
No
39%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.92
2-3 Goals
35%
2.18
4-5 Goals
32%
2.47
6+ Goals
15%
4.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.05
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
18.6
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
10%
9.9
X/2
15%
4.47
X/X
6%
7.01
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.07
2/X
8%
13.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 18.6 — our 9% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
23%
+4.2pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.4pp
51%
Away Win
55%
-3.8pp
36%
Under 2.5
31%
+5.3pp
64%
Over 2.5
69%
-5.3pp
61%
BTTS Yes
67%
-6.0pp
39%
BTTS No
33%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Sydney — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Sydney EU Bookmakers 59%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -23%
1.38/2.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.55
-17% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 81%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.5
18.4 Crosses 16.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7

Macarthur vs Sydney Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sydney
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.06 xG 1.73
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
321 Passes 508
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 37
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Sydney Sydney 0-2 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
24.12.2022 Sydney Sydney 0-3 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
29.10.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 2-3 HT 1-2 Sydney Sydney AVUS
30.03.2022 Sydney Sydney 2-2 HT 1-2 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
26.12.2021 Macarthur Macarthur 0-3 HT 0-2 Sydney Sydney AVUS
08.12.2021 Sydney Sydney 2-0 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUK

Macarthur 1-0 Sydney — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
1-0
AWAY Sydney
1.37 xG 1.46
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
209 Passes 430
65% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 45
9 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Sydney
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur squeezed past Sydney 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sydney at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Macarthur had 38% of the ball to Sydney's 62%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 1.37 to 1.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sydney led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Macarthur and 1.67 for Sydney.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Sydney?

Macarthur 1-0 Sydney in the Australia - A-League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Sydney?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sydney win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 27%, draw 22%, Sydney 51%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sydney) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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